Imagine a classroom. One student hands in a paper graded 7.6 out of 10. The others range between 0.2 and 5. Have you guessed who? India. While most major economies move at a slow trot, it sprints. This week, the markets tell another story: that of a world where each region no longer moves at quite the same pace.
Below, we take the world tour of the summit: growth, stock indices, the big funds' filings and crypto. Everything explained simply, without jargon, so you can follow along even if you are just starting out.
India at the head of the pack, the others at a slow trot
What exactly is growth? It's the size of a country's economic pie growing from one year to the next. A bit like a business whose revenue increases: it sells more, it hires more, it invests more. Economists call this pie "GDP," short for gross domestic product: it's simply the total value of everything a country produces in a year.
In India, this pie grew by 7.6% year over year, according to the World Bank. Put concretely: for every €100 of activity produced last year, about €7.60 is added this year. The United States is moving at 2.2% (about €2.20 more per €100), the eurozone at 1.4%, and Germany is barely crawling at 0.2% (20 cents per €100).
Why does one country run faster than another? Often because it starts from further behind, because it builds, because it consumes a lot. Think of a teenager who grows several centimetres in a year, while an adult has stopped growing: the teenager's "growth rate" is naturally higher. India is in that phase. Conversely, Germany, Europe's industrial engine, is running at a crawl — a mature economy advancing slowly.
What this changes for you: an economy that grows often means more jobs and more domestic demand. But be careful, that says nothing about the country's stock market. The proof is just below.
And let's talk precisely about those stock indices that don't always follow their economy.
Japan soars, India's stock market stalls
A stock index is a gauge. It measures the temperature of a basket of stocks, not the health of an entire country. It's the difference between a city's weather and a continent's climate: both can tell opposite stories at the same time.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): +44.3% over one year. The biggest gain among major indices.
- Bovespa (Brazil): +30.8% over one year, and +5.5% this month alone. The only major index in the green in recent weeks.
- Nifty 50 (India): -6.4% over one year. The weakest. The economy moves fast, the stock market does not.
- ASX 200 (Australia): -0.7% over one year.
Japan, for its part, has an extra asset: its central bank keeps its key rate very low, at 0.5%. The key rate is the price of money set by the central bank, a bit like the base rate at which banks refinance themselves. When it is low, credit costs less, and that more easily flows to businesses — the way a tap left open lets water reach the whole house more easily.
But this week, almost everyone is pulling back. The Swiss SMI loses 3.6% this month, the Nikkei 3.5%, the ASX 3.7%. The CAC 40 drops 1.9%, the German DAX 2.6%.
A week of pullback, then. Nothing exceptional: numbers go up and down, that's their nature. What matters is understanding why they move.
So, what makes all this move?
The great calm of announcements: nothing to sink your teeth into
This week, no major economic announcement came out. No surprise inflation, no employment figure, no central bank decision.
Usually, it's these events that move the markets. Why? Because what matters is not the figure itself, but the gap between what came out and what the experts expected. A figure exactly as forecast is like a weather report announced and confirmed: no one pulls out an umbrella. A figure that surprises, on the other hand, wakes everyone up.
This week, no wake-up call. The markets therefore digested what they already had in hand.
To go further: when there is no announcement, investors look elsewhere — company earnings, capital flows, major underlying trends. And speaking of which, what are the big funds doing?
The logbook of the big funds: tech in the lead
The 13F is the logbook that large American funds must publish each quarter with the SEC, the watchdog of the American stock market. There you can see what they hold. This week, the initial snapshot came out.
- Alphabet (Google): held by 10 funds. The most popular.
- Amazon: 8 funds.
- Taiwan Semiconductor, Meta, AMD: 7 funds each.
- Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft: 5 funds each.
A clear thread emerges: technology dominates. It's a bit like watching what the great chefs put in their shopping cart at the market. It gives a trend, not a recipe to copy.
Note: the in-house indicator KAREN tracks these 13F filings. The entries/exits comparison will come with the next filing. A possible entry is a matter of each reader's method and decision — nothing is suggested here.
And what if we zoomed in on a few of these stocks?
Zoom on three stocks: tech under the magnifying glass
Three names keep coming up. Let's look at their figures, without judgment.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): $433.24, -10% below its 52-week high, but +67.1% over one year.
- Meta Platforms (META): $648.03, -18% below its high, and -14.2% over one year.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): $516.13, -12% below its high, but +225.5% over one year. The biggest gain of the three.
The "52-week high" is the peak reached over the last twelve months. Being below it simply means the stock has come back down since. Nothing more.
AMD has more than tripled in a year: for every €100 placed a year ago, about €325 would remain today. Meta has pulled back. Two opposite trajectories in the same sector. To be observed, factually.
To explore this kind of situation, the JARVIS training offers a structured path, from basic vocabulary to reading institutional filings. The investment journal also lets you track stocks, ETFs and crypto with a weekly report.
Now, let's leave the stock market for a universe that never sleeps.
Crypto holds its breath
Bitcoin pulled back 2.9% over seven days, to $77,339. Over one year, it loses 32.7%. Ether, for its part, rises 3.3% over the week, to $2,535, but falls 43.9% over one year.
Two cryptos, two directions this week. That's the hallmark of this universe: it moves fast, in both directions.
"Stablecoins," those cryptos tied to the dollar like a boat to its dock, remain stable: USDT and USDC at $1.00. Their mission is precisely not to move.
What this changes for you: crypto remains volatile ground. For every €100 placed in bitcoin a year ago, about €67 would remain today. An order of magnitude to keep in mind before any decision.
To remember this week
- India shows the strongest growth: +7.6%.
- The Nikkei 225 leads over one year: +44.3%. The Nifty 50 brings up the rear: -6.4%.
- No major macro announcement this week.
- Alphabet, the most-held stock by the big funds (10 funds).
- ETH leads over 7 days (+3.3%), BTC pulls back (-2.9%).
To watch: the next 13F filings, upcoming macro announcements, and how the indices hold up after this month of pullback.
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Educational and informational content. Neither investment advice nor an incentive to trade. Trading involves a risk of capital loss. Past performance does not predict future performance.