Wall Street holds its breath. Treasury yields — in other words, the rent the U.S. government pays to borrow — remain stable this morning, as CNBC reports. Simple translation: nobody wants to make a big bet before knowing the inflation figure.
Why this figure matters so much
Inflation is the speed at which prices rise. Imagine your grocery cart: if the same items cost 3% more than a year ago, on €100 of groceries you pay €103. That is exactly what the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published in the United States measures.
The Federal Reserve (the Fed, the U.S. central bank) watches this figure closely. When inflation runs hot, it raises key interest rates — the price of money. And when money costs more, loans, businesses and markets breathe differently.
To grasp this mechanism, think of a thermostat: the Fed adjusts the temperature of the economy. Too hot (strong inflation), it cools things down; too cold (sluggish activity), it warms things up. The CPI is the thermometer that tells it where things stand — and everyone is waiting for its next reading.
Oil throws another log on the fire
A barrel remains under pressure. Expensive oil is like a tax that shows up at every gas fill-up and in every delivery of goods. The result: inflation can stay sticky longer than expected, and the Fed then keeps the tap of expensive money open.
In other words, oil and inflation often move hand in hand: when energy climbs, it spreads throughout the economy, from transport to heating. That is what makes the current situation tricky for markets to read.
What to watch at the open
- The dollar: a greenback on the move changes the price of imports and weighs on commodities.
- Gold: it often moves opposite to real yields. If they rise, gold attracts less; if they fall, it regains interest.
- The US30 and Nasdaq indices: the CPI release can create bursts of volatility at the open. Tech stocks are often the most sensitive to rates.
- Oil: a barrel that climbs fuels the inflation narrative, a barrel that falls calms it.
The classic traps of CPI day
On release day, two mistakes often come up among beginners. The first: reacting in the very first second, on a candle that shoots in every direction — those opening moves are frequently false starts before the market stabilizes. The second: forgetting that the "expected" figure matters as much as the "actual" figure. A figure in line with expectations may trigger nothing, while a small deviation surprises everyone.
That is where method and discipline make the difference. The JARVIS METHOD, our analysis framework taught in training, helps structure the reading of these high-stakes sessions — without ever promising to guess the direction. To go further, the full course is available on the training page.
Step back before acting
Nothing dramatic in all this. Markets digest, adjust, wait. Your job: understand the mechanisms, not guess the direction.
To work on these reflexes, the member area offers a trading journal (screenshots, result, mini psychological test) and a "My Trading" hub with progress statistics. The blog and the "JARVIS Readings" decode the economic news every day, and the glossary helps you get comfortable with the vocabulary — from CPI to key interest rates. Those who also want to track their longer-term investments will find a dedicated investment journal (stocks, ETFs, crypto) with prices and a weekly report.
Finally, keep in mind that sticking to a plan also goes through the mind and the body: mindset coaching (discipline, emotion management) and the "My fitness" section (the trader's lifestyle habits) complete the setup to approach these sessions with serenity.
Educational content. Trading involves a risk of capital loss. This is neither investment advice nor tax advice.