Week's Key Highlights
This week is shaping up to be particularly busy for financial markets. Two major events are capturing investors' attention. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB, the institution that steers the single currency) unveils its decisions on key interest rates, which is the price of money it sets for banks. Then, on Friday, US inflation figures take over with the CPI index (the indicator that measures changes in the cost of living for consumers). These two announcements can trigger significant market movements, much like a sudden gust of wind on a calm lake.
To navigate these turbulent periods, a solid method is essential. As our comprehensive training, structured in progressive learning paths, reminds us, mental and technical preparation makes all the difference. Practical tools like the JARVIS METHOD indicator on TradingView, the position calculator, or the session and market references provide valuable visual benchmarks. The member area, with its progress tracking, orientation test, and trading journal, allows you to record your observations and learnings. The challenge is simple: digest a large volume of economic information without being overwhelmed by emotion. For those who want to strengthen their discipline, the mindset coaching segment and the "My Form" module—covering trader lifestyle habits—offer useful support.
Day by Day: Publication Details
Monday, September 7: "Bank Holiday" in the United States and Canada. Banks are closed. Stock and bond markets operate at a slow pace. Result: thin order books and often unpredictable price variations (volatility, comparable to choppy seas), due to a lack of large institutional volumes to steady the ship. Caution is therefore advised early in the week. This is a good time to review your trading journal and prepare your observations rather than force action.
Thursday, September 10: The busiest day of the week.
- 09:15 [EUR] Main Refinancing Operation (high impact) — Economists forecast 2.65% against a previous 2.40%. This key rate is the price of money set by the central bank for commercial banks. Imagine a faucet regulating the water flow in a house: if you turn it down slightly, the water flows more slowly. Here, if the rate rises, borrowing becomes more expensive for banks, and then for businesses and individuals. Concretely, on a loan of 100,000 euros, a 0.25-point increase can mean several hundred euros more per year in interest.
- 09:15 [EUR] Monetary Policy Statement (high impact) — This text details the ECB's view on the European economy. Every sentence is weighed by investors, as it can signal future direction. The tone—whether cautious or confident—often matters as much as the figures themselves.
- 09:30 [USD] Core Producer Prices (m/m) (high impact) — Expected at 0.3% against 0.2% the previous month. This indicator measures changes in wholesale prices, excluding energy and food. It acts as a leading signal: if producers pay more for their raw materials, they often pass this increase on to consumers a few weeks later. It's a bit like a rise in wheat prices showing up in bread. A 0.3% monthly rise, if sustained, could translate into a noticeable annual increase.
- 09:30 [USD] PPI (m/m) (high impact) — Expected to rise to 0.4% against 0.0%. It reflects what factories and producers pay for their inputs. It's the businesses' grocery bill: if it increases, final prices usually follow. This is the broadest measure of producer-level price pressures.
- 09:30 [USD] Unemployment Claims (medium impact) — The consensus (the average of analysts' forecasts) is for 205,000 claims against 206,000 last week. A stable figure measuring the health of the US labor market. Fewer claims signal strength. For context, 205,000 claims per week represents a small fraction of the US workforce of around 160 million people—a sign of a tight labor market.
- 09:45 [EUR] ECB Press Conference (high impact) — The President of the ECB speaks live. Every word is scrutinized by forex traders (currency exchange specialists). This is when the institution can clarify, nuance, or steer its future intentions. Questions from journalists often reveal details not covered in the initial statement.
Friday, September 11: US inflation day.
- 03:00 [GBP] GDP m/m (high impact) — UK monthly growth (the total wealth produced by the country in one month) is expected at 0.0% against 0.3% the previous month. A figure illustrating a potential slowdown in activity, like a car losing speed on an incline. Zero growth does not mean recession, but it signals a pause in momentum.
- 09:30 [USD] Core CPI Inflation (m/m) (high impact) — Forecast stable at 0.2%. This measure excludes the volatile prices of energy and food. It helps reveal a more reliable underlying trend in the cost of living. On a monthly basis, 0.2% is consistent with a gradual normalization of prices.
- 09:30 [USD] Core CPI (y/y) (high impact) — Expected at 2.4% against 2.5%. An annual perspective on the same dynamic, confirming or refuting the underlying trend. A decline from 2.5% to 2.4% would signal a slow but steady easing of underlying price pressures.
- 09:30 [USD] CPI Inflation (m/m) (high impact) — The headline figure is anticipated at 0.4% against 0.1% the previous month. Any deviation from expectations immediately alters Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) rate expectations. This weighs on or supports the dollar ($), subsequently influencing stock indices and other currencies. A 0.4% monthly rise would be the strongest in months—investors will watch closely.
- 09:30 [USD] CPI Inflation (y/y) (high impact) — Forecast stable at 3.4%. It measures the one-year price increase for the US consumer. Concretely, if a shopping basket cost $100 last year, it would cost about $103.40 today. This annual rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, which explains the central bank's cautious stance.
- 11:00 [USD] Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (medium impact) — Expected at 51.0, unchanged from last month. This survey reflects household optimism regarding their financial situation. Higher morale encourages consumption, a driver of the economy. A reading of 51 remains historically low, indicating persistent caution among consumers.
- 11:00 [USD] Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations (medium impact) — The direct counterpart to the previous one. It shows what consumers anticipate for future price increases. If they climb, they might change their purchasing behavior immediately—for instance, buying sooner if they expect higher prices later.
Saturday, September 12:
- 04:30 [EUR] Speech by Christine Lagarde, ECB President (medium impact) — A public appearance that often helps clarify the monetary trajectory once the post-announcement frenzy has settled. These remarks can reinforce or soften the message delivered two days earlier.
Why These Holidays Matter
Monday, September 7 is marked by "Bank Holidays" in the United States and Canada. Banks and financial markets are closed there. This causes a mechanical decline in global liquidity, meaning the ease of buying or selling an asset without altering its price. Order books thin out. Price movements can then become more erratic, much like a small boat rocking when there are fewer passengers to stabilize it. For a trader, this is the time to favor observation over action. Thin liquidity also means that a single large order can have a disproportionate impact on prices, creating false signals.
Connecting to Our Analyses
This news echoes several of our recent publications, available on our daily blog and in our JARVIS Readings. Tensions on costs and central bank decisions are at the heart of our analysis "Expensive fuel and rate tensions: the market tests its calm". Disruptions to shipping routes, mentioned in "Strait of Hormuz: when maritime flows slow down", remind us that supply chains directly influence energy prices and therefore inflation. Similarly, the management of monetary policy levers by institutions is hinted at in "Tesla and innovation: when the road inspires markets". To delve deeper into these dynamics, our country fact sheets and glossary offer useful benchmarks, accessible to all levels. If you are just starting out, the complete training available on the formation page provides a structured path to understand how economic news fits into a broader trading approach.
Our Take for the Trader
Faced with such an agenda, the best approach is often to observe before acting. Major releases like US inflation (CPI) or ECB announcements regularly cause sudden waves of volatility. When figures deviate from the consensus, participants react quickly, driving the dollar and markets in dynamic moves. Take the time to let the market digest the first minute of trading before placing any order. Maintain strict risk management and avoid chasing the price.
Feel free to rely on your member area and trading journal for your weekly mental check and to record your learnings. The mindset coaching segment and the Telegram assistant, with its daily plan and morning market brief, can help you maintain the necessary discipline. If you're a beginner, the complete training from JARVIS Trading Institut will help you understand how to approach these key moments with a proven method, without ever trying to predict the unpredictable. The JARVIS METHOD, a structured analytical framework, supports you in this process: to master its subtleties, the training remains the preferred path. For those tracking longer-term investments, the investment journal covering stocks, ETFs, and crypto can also help you contextualize these weekly events within a broader perspective.
Educational content. Trading involves a risk of capital loss. This is neither investment advice nor tax advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.