Imagine the UN Security Council chamber as the teachers' lounge of a large high school: people talk loudly, they clash, but only a few decisions truly change the students' lives. Right now, Zelenskyy is stepping up and calling for more pressure on Russia, warning that the war spills far beyond Ukraine's borders. So here is the question that actually matters for you: should this geopolitical noise move your portfolio?
The fact: strong words, but no new rules yet
The Ukrainian president spoke at the UN to call for increased pressure on Moscow, stressing that the consequences of the conflict now go beyond Ukraine itself, as reported by UN Info. At the same time, the Security Council debated the war.
Key point: at this stage, no binding decision has emerged from these discussions. A binding decision is a resolution that would legally obligate states to act — like a referee's whistle that everyone must obey, not just a spectator shouting from the stands.
In other words, there was a lot of talk, but the rules of the economic game have not changed yet. And that is precisely what markets look at: not the intensity of speeches, but the concrete decisions that follow from them.
Why markets listen to words… without necessarily reacting to them
Let's take an everyday image. A geopolitical speech is like the weather forecast on TV: it informs you, it helps you organize, but as long as the rain hasn't fallen, your laundry stays outside. Markets work the same way: they react to measurable facts — new sanctions, export blockades, energy price spikes — far more than to statements.
Why? Because a sanction actually changes supply and demand. If a country can no longer sell its oil, the oil has to come from somewhere else, and that shift shows up in real prices. A speech, on the other hand, mainly changes expectations. And an expectation, however strong, remains reversible within hours.
Concretely, for you, that means: don't confuse "information that makes the headlines" with "information that moves prices durably."
The macro context: what US figures are really saying
While geopolitics takes center stage in the media, another engine is running in the background: the health of the US economy. And there, the published figures — found notably in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's FRED database — are particularly telling.
Why cite this data? Because it weighs far more heavily on markets than any speech at the UN. Let's look at it together:
- Weekly jobless claims came in at 197K (197,000 new applications), slightly below the 201K expected. In other words, slightly fewer people than expected filed for unemployment that week.
- The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, versus 4.1% expected. Out of 100 people of working age, a little more than 4 are without a job. A nuance, but one that points to a labor market that is loosening.
- Job creation (NFP, for "Non-Farm Payrolls": the number of jobs created outside the agricultural sector) was only +29K, far from the +73K hoped for. This is the most striking figure: the US economy created less than half the jobs expected.
- Core PCE inflation — the price index the Fed watches closely, excluding food and energy — came in at 0.2% for the month, below the 0.3% expected.
Simple translation: the US labor market is slowing, and inflation is cooling. Two signals pointing in the same direction.
Our read: the credit tap could loosen
A cooling job market and calming inflation is the scenario the Fed appreciates: it opens the door to softer rates. Let's recall what policy rates are: it's the price of money set by the central bank. Imagine a giant tap that supplies the entire economy with credit. When the central bank lowers its rates, the tap opens: borrowing becomes cheaper for businesses and households alike.
The classic mechanism then follows: weaker economic figures → hope of rate cuts → bond yields declining → dollar often less supported → stocks and gold breathing easier.
But let's stay clear-eyed: geopolitics remains an unpredictable variable. A real escalation, of the kind involving major energy sanctions, could instead reignite inflation and complicate the Fed's task. That's the nuance to keep in mind: a favorable scenario is never a guaranteed scenario.
What this changes for your practice
Concretely, for you: US macro announcements — unemployment, PCE, NFP — remain the main driver of volatility on the US30, the Nasdaq and gold. Major geopolitical speeches, on the other hand, often generate short volatility spikes, followed by a return to calm.
Your useful reflex comes down to three simple actions:
- Note the release dates of major figures in your calendar in advance.
- Avoid taking positions just before these windows, when the price can jump without warning.
- Keep a position size consistent with that uncertainty, rather than inflating it out of excitement.
Discipline always prevails over prediction. This is a point on which we are uncompromising at JARVIS Trading Institut: most beginners lose, not because they lack information, but because they take positions that are too large at the wrong time. The JARVIS method, which we teach in our complete, path-structured training, serves precisely as a framework for approaching these periods with method rather than emotion.
💡 Concrete case: you trade the Nasdaq on the day of an NFP release. If the figure surprises, the spread can widen and the price can jump several dozen points in seconds. A beginner who enters without a stop often gets stopped out by the noise, not by their thesis. Anticipating these windows is already half the work.
The trap to avoid: confusing news with signal
Here is an uncomfortable truth, but one that must be heard: following geopolitical news continuously does not make you a better trader. It can even hurt, by feeding impulsiveness. Reading the headlines is good. Understanding what moves prices is better. And acting according to a written plan is what makes the difference over time.
Our teaching position is clear: better a trader who knows three key figures and respects their plan, than a trader who reads fifty articles a day and changes their mind every hour. The quality of information matters more than its quantity.
Going further in your practice
If you want to structure your reading of the market, several tools in our ecosystem can help you, without ever telling you what to buy or sell:
- The JARVIS METHOD indicator on TradingView, accompanied by a position calculator and session and exchange markers — tools designed to help you frame your practice (their precise workings are reserved for members).
- The investment journal on /investir, to track stocks, ETFs and crypto, with prices and a weekly report.
- The Telegram assistant, which sends you a market brief and the day's plan every morning, as well as a news watch — handy for no longer missing important macro appointments.
- Mindset coaching, to work on discipline and emotional management, complemented by the "Ma forme" section (the trader's lifestyle habits).
- Comparative directories of brokers and prop firms, with practical information such as withdrawal times.
- Daily editorial content: blog, "Lectures JARVIS" (economic analyses), glossary and country fact sheets — useful for understanding a country's context before interpreting a news item.
The common thread of this article comes down to one sentence: geopolitics makes noise, macro makes the trend. Keep an eye on both, but give priority to the figures, and above all to your discipline.
Educational content. Trading involves a risk of capital loss. This is neither investment advice nor tax advice; past performance does not predict future performance.