Why can markets change mood in a matter of hours, without any bad news being announced? Because the Stock Market doesn't just react to what happens: it reacts to what it expected. This week, three appointments are back on the table on the United States side. Here's how to read them without jargon — and why it matters to you, even if you don't invest yet.
A useful little reminder: a stock index is like the average of a class's grades. The US30 (the Dow Jones) tracks 30 large American companies; the Nasdaq mainly tracks technology companies. When that average moves, it's often a sign that the general mood is changing. And that mood always ends up affecting your daily life: your savings, your credit, the price of your groceries.
1. Inflation figures in the United States
Inflation is the speed at which prices rise in your shopping cart. If milk costs 3% more than a year ago, inflation is at 3%. In concrete terms: on €100 of groceries, you pay €3 more for the same thing.
Why is it the number one appointment? Because the American central bank (the Fed) uses key interest rates — the price of money that it sets — as a thermostat. It raises them to cool prices, it lowers them to warm up the economy. An inflation figure softer than expected can give indices some breathing room; a hotter figure can make them swing the other way.
The classic beginner's trap: looking at the raw figure and forgetting the comparison. The market doesn't react to "inflation is at X%," but to "is inflation higher or lower than what everyone expected?" It's the gap from expectations that moves prices, not the level itself. In concrete terms, for you, that means: never rush into a position in the seconds following a release. Let the first move calm down.
2. Interest rates and the dollar
The dollar is the currency in which most global exchanges take place — a bit like the common language of international trade. When it climbs, commodities priced in dollars, like gold, become more expensive for buyers paying in another currency. It's the faucet principle: the harder the dollar flows, the less gold attracts. Conversely, a weakening dollar can support the yellow metal.
To track this faucet, we look at the DXY: the index that measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies. It's the dollar's compass — not the treasure map, just the compass.
Gold, for its part, reacts to three ingredients at once: the dollar, interest rates and the general climate (what the Anglo-Saxons call "risk-on / risk-off," in other words: "I feel like taking risks" or "I'd rather seek shelter"). Three ingredients, not just one. This is precisely the most widespread mistake: believing that a single factor explains everything. A rising dollar and falling rates, for example, can pull gold in two opposite directions at the same time. Hence the value of looking at the whole picture rather than seeking the single cause.
3. Company releases
Several large American companies are unveiling their quarterly results. Good revenue is like a shopkeeper filling their till: it reassures. A disappointing result can weigh on the index concerned, especially on the Nasdaq, where tech carries a lot of weight.
Watch out for a common reflex among beginners: reading only the profit and ignoring the outlook. A company can announce good results and see its share price decline, if its forecasts for the coming months disappoint. The market looks ahead, not in the rearview mirror. In concrete terms, for you, that means: good news doesn't mechanically lead to a rise, and vice versa. The price already incorporates much of what everyone knows.
What to watch
- Volatility: it's the magnitude of movements, like the swell at sea. The stronger it is, the wider the gaps can be — in both directions. It doesn't say where things are going, only how much it's churning.
- The dollar (DXY): it often sets the tempo for gold.
- The US30 and Nasdaq indices: their reactions to macro figures say a lot about the market's mood.
- Gold: it reacts to the dollar, rates and the general climate. Three ingredients, not just one.
- The calendar: knowing when releases come out avoids being caught off guard. A known event is not a trap — a forgotten event is.
The real issue: your reaction, not the forecast
Here's an uncomfortable truth, but one that needs to be heard: most beginners lose not because they don't know how to forecast markets, but because they don't know how to manage what happens when they're wrong. Forecasting is almost impossible; protecting yourself is a skill that can be learned. This is exactly why discipline and risk management matter more than any "good idea."
None of this predicts anything. It just helps you understand why prices move — and to keep a cool head when things churn. Understanding the context is already half the work: we react less out of fear, we decide more calmly.
Moving from understanding to practice
This reading of the news takes on its full meaning when it fits into a structured framework. At JARVIS Trading Institut, the complete training is organized into progressive paths, with bootcamps, mentoring and events to practice under the right conditions. The JARVIS METHOD, our analysis framework, relies on a dedicated indicator on TradingView, complemented by a position calculator and session and exchange benchmarks — the goal being to turn theory into concrete, repeatable actions.
And because a trader is first and foremost a person: the member area offers progress tracking, an orientation test, a trading journal (screenshots, result, mini psych test) and a "My Trading" hub with statistics. Mindset coaching works on discipline and emotional management, while the "My fitness" section focuses on lifestyle habits — because we make bad decisions when we sleep badly. To follow the markets daily, the Telegram assistant sends a plan of the day, a morning market brief, a news watch and targeted reminders. On the longer-term investment side, the dedicated journal (stocks, ETFs and crypto) offers courses and a weekly report. Finally, the comparative directories — brokers and prop firms — and daily editorial content (blog, "JARVIS Readings," glossary, country fact sheets) help you choose your tools with full knowledge of the facts.
Educational content, trading involves a risk of capital loss, this is not investment advice or tax advice.