Imagine a faucet. You turn it down a little: the stream weakens. You open it: it starts again. Oil works exactly like this faucet: its price depends on the balance between what is extracted from the ground and what is consumed each day. Today, the barrel — the unit of measurement for crude oil, about 159 liters — is around 100 dollars, after falling and then rising again. A round trip, not a straight line. And according to the American channel CNBC, which devoted an analysis to this movement, it is China that could well be holding the wheel for the next stage.
Oil, that faucet that never flows straight
Why does the price of a barrel move so much? Because it answers a simple question: are there more buyers than sellers, or the opposite?
When supply is abundant and demand is soft, the price falls: this is what happened during the pullback mentioned by CNBC. When demand picks up or supply tightens, the price rises again. The return toward 100 dollars is therefore not an accident: it is the result of a gradual rebalancing between the two pans of the scale.
Remember this image: oil is the fuel of the global economy. Trucks, planes, factories, heating, plastics, fertilizers… almost everything depends on it. When its price rises, it is as if the cost of gasoline increased for all companies on the planet.
Why China matters so much
China is the world's largest importer of crude. Think of a giant shopping cart: when this country buys more oil for its factories and its roads, global demand rises. When it slows down, the cart empties and prices can ease.
Traders therefore look at its import figures the way one watches the sky before a picnic: it is not a guarantee, but it is a valuable indicator. An import figure stronger than expected suggests solid demand; a weaker figure suggests the opposite. It is precisely this link that CNBC highlights: the next direction of the barrel could be decided largely on Beijing's side.
Note: China does not just buy. It also stores oil in strategic reserves, a bit like filling one's freezer when prices are low. These storage movements can also influence prices, without this being visible in daily consumption.
The link with your screens
- US indices (US30, Nasdaq): energy enters the production cost of almost everything. Expensive oil is like a rise in the price of gasoline for companies: it often weighs on their margins. The Nasdaq, filled with technology stocks, is sometimes more sensitive to it.
- Dollar: crude is paid for in dollars. A dollar that moves changes the price paid by foreign buyers, which can alter demand. When the dollar appreciates, oil becomes more expensive for countries that do not use the American currency — a possible brake on demand.
- Gold: when inflation returns to the conversation, gold often attracts attention as a reserve value. The link is indirect, but real.
- Volatility: around a round number like 100 dollars, movements tend to amplify. Stops are hit faster, and risk management becomes even more important than usual.
The three gauges to watch
Three elements set the tempo in the coming weeks:
- Chinese import data: they tell whether the cart is filling up or emptying.
- OPEC+ decisions: this group of producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia and allies) sets production quotas. Opening the valves is like increasing the flow of the faucet: it can push prices down. Closing them is the opposite.
- The level of the dollar: the stronger it is, the more oil costs foreign buyers, which can weigh on demand.
Nothing is settled: the direction will depend on real demand, not on headlines. A disappointing import figure, an OPEC+ decision, a dollar that soars — each of these elements can tip the trend one way or the other.
A word on the method
Following oil is not about guessing its next price. It is about understanding the context, identifying the zones where the market reacts, and applying a disciplined framework. This is exactly what the JARVIS METHOD offers, our analysis framework available on TradingView, accompanied by a position calculator and session markers. The detailed workings are reserved for members — but the complete and structured training course teaches you to read these movements step by step, from the macro context to risk management.
To go further
If you are a beginner, start with the glossary and the country sheets to familiarize yourself with terms like "barrel," "OPEC+" or "net imports." JARVIS Readings, our economic analyses, regularly decipher these dynamics. And to practice without risk, the trading journal in the member area helps you document each decision and progress with awareness.
Educational content, trading involves a risk of capital loss, neither investment advice nor tax advice.