The Fed is the central bank of the United States — the institution that sets the "price of money" for the entire country. That price is the policy rates: in other words, what it costs when a bank, a business, or a household borrows money. Imagine a faucet: for three years, it was wide open and money flowed at almost zero cost. This time, it's being turned down a notch. The cost of borrowing is going back up.
A turning point after three years
The Fed has just raised its rates for the first time in three years, as reported by CNBC. To fully grasp it, you have to remember where we came from. During the pandemic, the Fed had opened the faucet wide: the goal was for businesses and households to be able to borrow without ruining themselves, and for activity to hold up. Today, it's inflation — the general rise in prices, which pushes up the grocery bill week after week — that is pushing the Fed to tighten.
The most accurate image is that of heating: when the room gets too hot, you lower the setting to keep it from becoming stifling. Except here, the room is the entire economy, and the temperature takes months to come back down. A rate hike doesn't act like a switch: it spreads slowly, in waves, through credit, real estate, and consumption.
A useful vocabulary point for following the news: "raising rates" means making money more expensive to curb demand; "lowering rates" is the opposite, making money more accessible to support activity. The Fed is constantly navigating between these two moves, a bit like adjusting a thermostat depending on the season.
One more thing worth keeping in mind: a central bank rarely moves alone. When the Fed tightens, other central banks — such as the European Central Bank (ECB) — often watch closely, because the price of money in one large economy influences the price of money elsewhere. This is why a single Fed decision can ripple well beyond American borders.
What it signals to the markets
When the price of money changes, several asset classes react. Here are the main threads to follow, explained simply.
- The dollar: when rates rise, dollar-denominated investments yield more. The greenback becomes more attractive, like a savings account that suddenly offered 3% instead of 0.5%. The dollar therefore tends to strengthen. Be careful, however: this is not a mechanical rule, other factors come into play.
- Gold: gold pays no interest — it doesn't "pay," it preserves. Faced with a dollar that yields more, it often attracts less, because holding gold has an opportunity cost (what one could have earned elsewhere). Its behavior also depends on inflation and geopolitical tensions, which can instead support its demand.
- US indices (US30, Nasdaq): rising rates make credit more expensive for companies. Growth stocks, heavily present on the Nasdaq, are often more sensitive to this, because their value rests on earnings expected far in the future. On €100 borrowed at 5% instead of 1%, the bill climbs quickly — and that difference weighs on investment projects.
An important nuance: these relationships are historical trends, not certainties. Markets often anticipate decisions before they are announced, which explains why a rate hike can sometimes be followed by a pullback… or a stabilization, depending on what investors were already expecting.
It also helps to remember that a rate move is rarely the only force at work. The health of the economy, the strength of company profits, and the mood of investors all pull in their own direction. Reading one signal in isolation, without the others, is like judging the weather from a single cloud.
What to watch in the coming sessions
Four markers deserve your attention to understand what comes next, without trying to predict it.
- The calendar: how many hikes does the Fed announce for the coming months? It's the pace, more than the isolated move, that guides the markets.
- The dollar: its strength often weighs on gold and on multinationals that sell abroad, because their revenues converted into dollars decrease.
- Volatility: markets digest sharp turns poorly. Expect more turbulent sessions, with sometimes wide moves in both directions.
- Corporate earnings: Starbucks and GE Vernova are among those names that give the pulse of consumption and industry — two essential engines of the US economy.
To follow these markers calmly, some traders keep a simple daily routine: a quick morning briefing, a short list of what to watch, and a written note of what actually happened. The goal is not to react to every headline, but to build a habit of observation. The JARVIS assistant on Telegram, for instance, shares a daily plan and a morning market brief — a practical way to start the day with a clear head rather than a screen full of noise.
How to approach this kind of sequence
Central bank announcements are moments when emotions run high quickly. The right approach is not to guess the next move, but to understand the context and keep a framework. That is exactly the role of the JARVIS METHOD: a structured framework for reading the market and organizing your decisions, without improvising. The details of the setups and rules remain reserved for members, but the spirit is simple: method first, reaction second.
To go further, the complete and structured training pathway helps lay the foundations step by step, from vocabulary to your first market readings. The investment journal (/investir section) also helps track stocks, ETFs, and crypto with prices and a weekly report, useful for stepping back from your observations.
Two habits make a real difference over time. The first is keeping a trading journal — writing down what you did, why, and how you felt, so that patterns become visible. The second is working on mindset: discipline and emotional control are skills, not talents, and they can be trained like anything else. The member area brings these tools together, with progress tracking, an orientation test, and a dedicated mindset coaching section. A trader who sleeps well, eats well, and stays calm simply makes clearer decisions — which is why the "Ma forme" section treats the trader's lifestyle as part of the job.
And because context matters just as much as technique, the daily editorial content — blog articles, the "Lectures JARVIS" economic analyses, a glossary, and country fact sheets — helps you connect a Fed decision to the wider picture, without drowning in jargon.
The Fed's tone, the dollar's reaction, and risk appetite: those are the three threads to follow in the coming sessions. Observe, understand, and give yourself time for reflection — that is often the best way to navigate these moments.
Educational content, trading involves a risk of capital loss, neither investment advice nor tax advice.