Eleven major economies, a report card… and one student handing in their paper two lengths ahead. This week, the head of the class is India: +7.6% growth. Meanwhile, Brazil is putting on a show on the stock market, US tech is catching its breath, and the crypto world is looking for direction. The common thread? The gaps between the world's economies are widening. Hang on, we're doing the tour in five stops.
India, the sprinter leaving the pack behind
Growth is the speed at which a country produces wealth. Think of a bike odometer: the faster it turns, the further the country moves. And right now, India is pedaling hard. According to World Bank data, it posts +7.6%, far ahead of the United States (2.2%), the eurozone (1.4%) and France (0.8%). Germany, for its part, is moving at 0.2%: the engine is idling.
Another detail that stands out: Indian inflation is at 1.6%. Inflation is the rise in prices, like a price tag that changes in your shopping cart. A low rise is comfortable for your wallet: on €100 of groceries, prices rose by only about €1.60 over the year. China even posts 0.0%: prices aren't moving up at all. Conversely, the United Kingdom is sweating at 4.2% and Brazil at 5.2%.
In practical terms, for you: an economy growing fast often means more jobs and more products to sell. But not everything automatically carries over into your daily life — a country can be running while your old car is still waiting for its parts. And Brazil, precisely, deserves a closer look.
Brazil, or the art of the hot-air balloon under a hot sky
The Bovespa, Brazil's main stock exchange, posts +44.5% over one year. It's the best index on our world tour. On €100 invested, that would mean €44.50 more in a year. Impressive, right?
But look at the price of money. Brazil's central bank sets its policy rate at 15%. The policy rate is the price of money: what a loan costs, and what a risk-free investment yields. At 15%, money "sleeps" while earning a lot. That attracts foreign capital, which buys reais and pushes the stock market up. It's the hot-air balloon principle: the denser the hot air, the higher the balloon rises.
To go further: this mechanism has a flip side. A strong currency can curb exports — Brazilian products become more expensive abroad. And inflation at 5.2% eats into purchasing power. Brazil is flying high, with an engine that's heating up. Let's move on to the indices, precisely.
The index leaderboard: who's climbing, who's falling back
An index is an average that sums up the health of a stock market. Like the class average: a single number that hides very different fates. Over one year, here's the podium and the back of the pack:
- Bovespa (Brazil): +44.5% over one year, +10.2% this month. The rocket.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): +35.3% over one year, but -2.1% this month. The soufflé is deflating a little.
- S&P/TSX (Canada): +18.8% over one year. Solid.
- Nifty 50 (India): -9.5% over one year, but +2.3% this month. The economy is running, the stock market is lagging. Strange, isn't it?
- Shanghai Composite (China): -5.1% over one year, -3.3% this month. A difficult week.
Why this Indian disconnect? A stock market doesn't reflect today's growth, but hopes for tomorrow's profits. Sometimes prices have already priced in a lot of optimism: the stock market runs ahead, the economy follows at its own pace. On the European side, the CAC 40 is down 2.8% over one year, while the German DAX gains 5.6%. The lesson to remember: never confuse the health of an economy with the performance of its stock market. They are two different odometers. And the big funds, what are they doing?
The big funds' logbook: tech in pole position
The 13F is the logbook that large investment funds must show to US regulators (the SEC) every quarter. It shows what they hold. This week, the picture is clear: technology dominates.
- Alphabet (Google): held by 10 funds.
- Amazon: 8 funds.
- Taiwan Semiconductor, Meta, AMD: 7 funds each.
- Broadcom: 6 funds.
- Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft: 5 funds each.
The entries/exits comparison will come with the next filing. In the meantime, the in-house indicator KAREN, which tracks these 13F filings, helps keep a factual eye on these movements. Any entry into KAREN is a matter of each reader's method and decision. No suggestion here, just transparency.
To go further: these are declared positions, sometimes several weeks old. The logbook tells the past, not the future. Reading a 13F is like looking in the rearview mirror: useful for understanding where you've come from, insufficient for guessing the road ahead. And precisely, let's talk about three giants.
Stock spotlight: three giants, three climates
Three names keep coming up in the logbooks. Here's their current weather, with no predictions.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): $412.61, -15% from its 52-week high, but +39.8% over one year. The momentum is good, the peak still far off.
- Meta: $709.33, -9% from its high, and -1.1% over one year. Stable over the year, slightly below its record.
- AMD: $528.75, -20% from its high, but +126.9% over one year. The rocket has risen a lot, and has moved a bit away from its peak.
"Distance to high" is the gap between today's price and the year's record. Like a hiker checking how many meters are left to reach the shelter. It's something to watch, not to predict. A number that rises a lot over one year is neither "good" nor "bad" in itself: it mainly tells of a trajectory already traveled. On to crypto, now.
The crypto corner: TRX holds its ground
The crypto world had a quiet week to the downside. Bitcoin (BTC) is at $81,473, down 1.6% over 7 days and 22.2% over one year. Ethereum (ETH) follows: $2,430.91, -2.5% over the week.
In this landscape, only one asset stands out: TRX (TRON), at $0.34, with +1.7% over 7 days and +9.5% over one year. Stablecoins (USDT, USDC) remain at $1.00, true to their promise: a stablecoin is a digital currency pegged to a traditional currency, like a boat moored to a pontoon — it moves with the tide, but stays at the dock.
To go further: crypto remains a young market with wide swings. On €100, a 7.1% drop (like XRP this week) removes €7.10. Keep that in mind. And now, the recap.
To remember this week
- India leads global growth at +7.6%, far ahead of all the others.
- Brazil posts the best index over one year: +44.5%.
- The Indian Nifty 50 is the weakest over one year: -9.5% — proof that economy and stock market don't always travel together.
- In crypto, TRX stands out: +1.7% over 7 days.
- No major macro announcements this week: a quiet week on the calendar.
Coming up: the next 13F filing, which will bring the entries/exits comparison of the big funds. And the next chapter in the duel between Indian growth and the Indian stock market.
One last thing, and it matters: this world tour teaches you to read the markets, not to guess them. To turn this reading into a real skill, the JARVIS Trading Institut training offers a complete and structured program (progressive modules, bootcamps, mentoring). On the practical side, the member area brings together a trading journal (screenshots, result, mini psych test) and a "My Trading" hub with your statistics; to track your stock, ETF and crypto investments, the investment journal is there. And to keep a cool head — an investor's first quality —, mindset coaching and the "My Shape" section do the job. Finally, the Telegram assistant sends you the day's plan and the market brief every morning, and the comparison directories (brokers, prop firms) help you choose serious players, with practical info such as withdrawal times.
Educational and informational content. Trading involves a risk of capital loss. Neither investment advice nor an incentive to trade. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.