Before entering the session, a serious trader asks themselves ONE question: "which side am I looking at today?" This is the bias of the day — the direction you will prioritize. And the good news is that a single tool gives it to you: the VWAP.
We'll see how to read your bias, how to play the 2 textbook cases in the right direction, and — the most requested — where to place your targets. Without jargon.
1. The VWAP, your 3-level compass
The VWAP (volume-weighted average price) exists on several horizons. Each answers a question:
| VWAP | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Monthly | The underlying trend (the general backdrop) |
| Weekly | The direction to prioritize today 👈 the core of the bias |
| Session (intraday) | Where you execute: it is the one that carries case 2 (the extremes) |
The simple rule: if the price is above the weekly VWAP → BUY bias (you look at longs). If it is below → SELL bias. You do not fight against that direction.
2. The 2 textbook cases, in the direction of the bias
Once the bias is set, you ONLY execute setups aligned with it. Let's take a BUY bias (price above the weekly VWAP):
- Case 1 — continuation. Your direction reference = a moving average (the EMA 50) on M1: price above = buy side. When the price makes a pullback within the trend, you drop down to a SECONDS timeframe with the JARVIS indicator to take the entry: "B" signal + red cloud flip → green. The VWAP serves here as a quality criterion: buying below the VWAP = "cheap" price.
- Case 2 — the return to the mean. The price has gone too far toward the DOWNSIDE (extreme −2σ of the session VWAP). You wait for this low level, then you also drop down to seconds for the entry (same execution: "B" signal, cloud flip). Your logical target: the return toward the VWAP (the mean).
In a SELL bias, it's the mirror image: case 1 = selling the bounce (price below the EMA 50 on M1, entry in seconds, "S" signal), case 2 = selling at the HIGH extreme (+2σ).
⚠️ The classic mistake: playing a case 2 against the bias (buying a low extreme while the price is below the weekly VWAP = "falling knife"). You always align the textbook case with the direction.
3. Where to place your targets (the exit toolbox)
Once in the trade, where to aim? You don't have to choose a single method forever — but choose one per trade and stick to it. For a buy, the possible targets:
- The return to the VWAP (especially for a case 2): on a buy at a low extreme, the natural target is the mean (the session VWAP).
- Yesterday's session highs. The previous day's extremes (Asia high, London high, NY high) are natural magnets for the price.
- Fibonacci extensions. The extension levels (1.272, 1.618…) project classic objectives after an impulse.
- The VWAP standard-deviation extremes. The +2σ / +3σ bands mark the zones where the price becomes "expensive" → exit targets.
- A fixed R:R. The simplest and most disciplined: you aim for a fixed risk/reward ratio (e.g. 2R = 2× your stop distance). Clear, mechanical objective, no debate.
- Round levels & reaction zones. Psychological figures and the zones where the price has already reacted.
👉 The secret is not "the best" target, it's choosing one in advance and sticking to it. The target decided mid-trade is an emotion, not a plan.
4. A concrete example
The Nasdaq opens above its weekly VWAP → BUY bias for the day. On M1, the price is above the EMA 50 and makes a pullback toward it (case 1, continuation). You drop down to seconds, you wait for the "B" signal and the cloud flip to enter. Your possible targets: yesterday's NY session high, the +2σ band of the session VWAP, with a safety net at 2R. Your stop is below the pullback, you move to break-even when it works, and you let the price go and reach your target.
5. Key takeaways
- Weekly VWAP = direction (above → buy, below → sell). Monthly = backdrop. Session = execution (the extremes of case 2).
- Case 1 = continuation: reference EMA 50 on M1, entry in seconds (B/S signal), VWAP = quality criterion.
- Case 2 = return to the mean: ±2σ extreme of the session VWAP, target = the VWAP. Always in the direction of the bias.
- Targets: VWAP return · yesterday's session highs/lows · Fibo extensions · ±σ extremes · fixed R:R. Choose one BEFORE.
- Never a case 2 against the bias (falling knife).
🧭 JARVIS tip: your Bias of the day (sent every morning in "Analysis and setup" and via DM) already gives you the VWAP reading and the textbook case to watch. It's up to you to confirm during the session with the method (EMA 50 on M1, then signal in seconds) and to place your targets.
Educational content from JARVIS Trading Institut. This is neither investment advice nor an incentive to take a position. The levels and targets are reference points, not guaranteed objectives. Trading involves a risk of capital loss; only invest what you can afford to lose.